by Chris Hulsman, Co-Host & Technical Coordinator of the RogCast Buffalo Sports Pod

For the fifth time in tournament history the United States & Canada will renew their World Junior Hockey rivalry for Gold tonight (6:30 PT/ 9:30 ET) in the host city of Edmonton, Alberta. First, let’s discuss a few tournament notes.
BRAVO EDMONTON & BRAVO CANADA
This year’s tournament came with all of the emotion and concern surrounding a pandemic. Of course, the vacant stands typically filled with Canadian die-hards was palpable through our television screens. Whether you hail from Canada, Europe, or United States you cannot deny the energy of a Canadian World Junior crowd. They happily dominated our city of Buffalo in 2011 and 2018, injecting passion and celebration into our community. I sincerely enjoyed the scene. While much of the United States is unaware this tournament exists, there are patches of loyal followers across the world; then there is Canada. While we were not gifted the enjoyment (or annoyance for some) of Canada’s fans this year, I sleep well knowing it returns to Edmonton for the 2022 tournament. This year, Canada made the best of a great tradition albeit in different and difficult circumstances. Bravo!
USA vs CANADA OUTLOOK

The United States takes to the ice tonight to face their archrivals and perhaps the best team in Canadian and tournament history. Team Canada has amassed a team that consists of all first-round NHL draft picks. This is without captain Kirby Dach and Alexis Lafrenière. After barely escaping Finland, the United States has a tall order in front of them, if the U.S. is to win tonight, these are the things that need to happen:
1.) Embrace the knowledge that Canada is better
In 2018, before the Suisse WJC team faced Canada in the Quarterfinals, head coach Christian Wohlwend admitted the talent disparity between the teams, “We are far away from them. Still. They are faster, they are bigger, they are stronger. They can shoot better, they can pass better. They can do everything better.” For U.S. Head Coach Nate Leaman, the prognosis isn’t much better. As a coach, you can approach this in one of two ways: you can deny fact and instill a false sense of security in your players that often leads to disaster, or you can trust that clearing the air in the locker room of what your team already knows does no harm to them. This is typically a message you deliver well before game time, perhaps at a team meeting the night before or during a strategy session at the morning skate. The desired effect is that your team will dedicate time to focus on playing strong instinctual hockey within the framework of your system, rather than resort to bad tendencies and lazy habits that strong teams can typically get away with when playing a lesser opponent. Let your players embrace the fact that they are up against a mountain task. But reassure them that the climb is attainable. The good news is you don’t have to beat them ten times, just this once. I think Herb Brooks implied this one time…
2.) Weather the storm – The first ten minutes is huge
Sit quietly and count to six-hundred, if you look up and the scoreboard is 0-0 or better, you just might have a game. The first ten minutes of any hockey game is a fragile thing. The players are working out their jitters, the goaltenders are getting a sense of whether they will fight the puck, the coaches are settling into line rotations and progressions. This is often when the dominant team can take an early strangle hold on a game. And the Canadians have excelled at it this during the tournament. For the U.S. get a few pucks deep early, get involved in some physical play (giving and receiving). I’d bet money that Spencer Knight will have to make some early big stops. The longer a game stays close, the better it is for the underdogs. One unique wildcard is the lack of crowd. I could suggest that missing the Team Canada faithful in the stands could help the U.S. lull Canada to sleep. This will certainly benefit USA early. But as the game continues and stays close, not having 18,000 worried eyes on them could be a relief for Canada. ***Side Note: Shifts after goals are also fragile times during games, look for which team will take advantage of this.
3.) Attack the slot without the puck
Our hockey analyst and frequent show contributor John Centola often points out that the U.S. traditionally derives a lot of it’s offensive production from odd-man rushes as a result of turnovers or a quick transitions (that and power play of course). The reason for this is simply that it’s difficult to pluck stars from there respective teams and ask them to play depth roles. This is not an indictment of the players, but a simple fact. Most of these players typically don’t have to ‘grind’ at their ‘day jobs.’ While the U.S. will need to grind plenty to compete with Canada, they are going to have to force turnovers and transition quickly. Canadian teams play with high energy and occasionally step out of position to make the big hit. While André Tourigny’s squad has shown little evidence of this during the 2021 tournament, the U.S. simply must find ways to generate production on the rush.

USA 2010 World Junior Team won gold in 2010 by scoring often on the rush. These two images show them taking advantage of turnovers and tight gaps by Canadian defenseman. Both resulted in a U.S. goal.

The truth is if the U.S. expects to win, they are going to have to catch Canada making mistakes. Canada overpowered Russia’s ability to control the puck on the rush with a combination of tight gaps and a strong backcheck. The U.S. will have to drive wide and crash the slot when entering the zone. There will not be time for nifty drop passes and weaves. Positive puck movement into the offensive zone is their only option.
4.) The U.S. must win faceoffs
Disrupting Canada’s momentum will be a strategy for the U.S. tonight. One way to achieve this is to get pucks on Devon Levi and force him to freeze it. This strategy is useless if you can’t win draws. The U.S. struggled on faceoffs against Finland, especially in the third period, winning only 40% of their draws in the game. Look for Alex Turcotte to take key faceoffs at key times.
5.) Score a short-handed goal
I may have offended some by suggesting that there is a tilt to Canadian ice when hosting this tournament. Let me be clear, home ice advantage exists for a reason, 50/50 calls are going to often lean towards the host team. Setting that aside, expect the U.S. to take more penalties tonight, not because of a predetermined malicious intent, but because Canada will force the U.S. into positions to take penalties (see #1 above). I’ll spare you the speech about the importance of special teams, it’s well documented. But in order to shock the world, they’ll need to shock Canada on the ice a few times. I would look for the U.S. to try to catch Canada playing aggressive and stretch the ice a little while killing off penalties. But they will need to get the puck first.
Final Analysis: Canada is really, really good. Perhaps the best team since ’05. The U.S faces a difficult task, they’ll need everything to go their way. In addition, they’ll need Canada to make mistakes. If they pull this off they’ll need the above mentioned to come to fruition and even more. This is Canada’s year: 5-1 Canada.
TOURNAMENT NOTE: ONE-SIDED DOESN’T MEAN MISGUIDED

A lot of discussion this year was dedicated to the one-sided nature of many of these games. This is not a phenomenon, it is not an outlier, and it is certainly nothing new to this tournament. While it may be difficult to sit through a game dominated by one team, please, I beg you, have patience. Underlying this entire tournament is the universal goal of spreading this game’s popularity throughout the world. While your evening’s plans of overtime excitement and end-to-end pace may have fallen into the disappointment of a 16-2 drubbing, there are a few things to take into account.
First, let’s not demean these athletes with phrases like “they’re just kids.” For any of these players to be at this level, they likely have been on both sides of these games many times in community rinks across Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden, and many other hot beds of hockey across the world. For those who have invested time in the minor hockey careers of kids, these types of games are a fact of life. It is impossible to encapsulate the thousands upon thousands of travel hockey teams within a spirit of parity. The fact is sometimes you’re going to have to traverse miles and compete against a team that is simply much better than you. But what is possible is inclusion. By expanding this tournament, we increase the possibility of exposure to youths across the world. We simply cannot deny countries entry into this competition for the sake of entertainment.
Currently, the women’s international game has grown in leaps. When thinking of the late 1990s, specifically the Nagano Olympics, it would be easy to exclude nations based on the lack of merit in raw talent. But foresight outweighs immediate wishes, and given time (sometimes painful amounts), inclusion breeds stronger competition. There is still a ways to go, but emerging programs in Sweden and Finland have begun to nip at the heels of the USA & Canada kingpins. It has taken a long time, but let’s hope our daughters get to watch the women of hockey across the world compete in a competitive 10-team tournament some day. For now, the World Juniors is fine with ten in the top division.
There is no doubt that Germany’s late tournament performance earned them the respect to accept how much they belonged in Edmonton. And it certainly meant something to Tim Stützle. This tournament certainly meant something to Austrian goaltender Sebastian Wraneschitz, who more than doubled the views for his page on Elite Hockey Prospects.
Finally, there is nothing wrong with running up the score at this tournament. Let me repeat that: there is nothing wrong with running up the score at this tournament. This is the highest level of organized hockey in the world at the under 20 level. While I defend the existence of emerging and developing programs at this tournament, I also understand that breaking into the top division comes with pioneers and sacrifices. Set aside the fact that a goal differential tie-breaker could doom a team into the dreaded relegation. Set aside the fact that telling your team to slow-up is a dangerous coaching maneuver in a short tournament. No team wants to be patronized. I could guarantee you that USA Hockey administrators during the period of time between 1977 to 2003, when the United States were blown out multiple times and had yet to win a gold, appreciated placing their athletes against the best in the world. It only made us better.






